Though Apple sometimes follows a two yr cycle with course of nodes, with the 7nm and 5nm processes lasting two years every – it appears extremely seemingly that Apple is about to make use of the 3nm course of for a 3rd yr in a row with the upcoming iPhone 17 lineup. There are a variety of causes for this, which we’ll be delving into.

3 yr silicon cycle

Technically talking, this isn’t the primary time that we’ve had the identical course of node for 3 years in a row, it’s simply that it was hidden the primary time.

Apple launched the A14 chipset, the primary era Apple Silicon constructed on TSMC’s 5nm structure in 2020, adopted by the A15, constructed on the second era 5nm course of, in 2021. After that, Apple launched the A16 chipset with iPhone 14 Professional in 2022 – which was constructed on a “4nm” course of.

Nonetheless, the fact is, whereas it’s branded as 4nm to the general public, TSMC refers to the N4 processed used within the A16 Bionic as a part of the “5nm expertise household”:

TSMC continues to broaden its 5nm expertise household to satisfy numerous buyer calls for. These embody N5P, N4, and N4P for higher energy, efficiency and density, N4X, a course of tailor-made for top efficiency computing (HPC) purposes, and N5A for automotive purposes.

Subsequent era silicon fabrication merely isn’t being developed as quick because it used to, so we’re actually on a 3 yr launch cycle now. In actual fact, we solely noticed the primary 3nm chips in Apple units in 2023 as a result of Apple used an early manufacturing 3nm course of (N3B) that almost all corporations selected to skip over.

When to anticipate 2nm: iPhone 17 vs iPhone 18

Whereas preliminary rumors urged that the iPhone 17 could be constructed on the leading edge 2nm manufacturing course of from TSMC, that now not appears to be the case, and provide chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that we’ll be seeing the third era 3nm course of, N3P, with the iPhone 17 lineup:

The processors for 2025 iPhone 17 fashions shall be made by TSMC’s N3P course of/3-nanometer expertise. The processor for 2026 iPhone 18 fashions is anticipated to make use of TSMC’s 2-nanometer expertise. Nonetheless, on account of price issues, not all new iPhone 18 fashions could also be geared up with a 2-nanometer processor.

As Kuo said, the iPhone 17 lineup gained’t be utilizing 2nm, and it is best to seemingly maintain out for the iPhone 18 Professional fashions should you’re in search of the newest and biggest in silicon fabrication.

It appears seemingly that the bottom iPhone 18 fashions will stick with 3nm chips, so we might both see the identical third era N3P course of because the iPhone 17 lineup, or maybe the fourth era N3X course of. Time will inform.

2nm manufacturing

TSMC is predicted to start threat manufacturing of the primary era 2nm course of (N2) in some unspecified time in the future in 2025, with quantity manufacturing going down later within the yr. This timeline would theoretically line up for the iPhone 17 launch, however for one cause or one other, Apple has chosen to carry out.

This isn’t out of the peculiar, as the primary era 3nm course of additionally started quantity manufacturing in late 2022, however Apple nonetheless elected to not undertake it for an additional yr.

Apple additionally isn’t anticipated to undertake 2nm for the M5 household of chips in Macs and iPads. These chips may even use the third era 3nm course of, in accordance with The Elec (through MacRumors).

It’ll be 2026 on the earliest earlier than we see 2nm chips in Apple units, in accordance with present reporting.

Observe Michael: X/Twitter, Bluesky, Instagram