Idea render of a clamshell foldable iPhone. } Picture credit-Unknown
So that you thought the foldable section of the smartphone trade was printing cash. In line with Show Provide Chain Consultants (DSCC), in the course of the third quarter of 2024, shipments of foldable shows declined year-over-year for the primary time ever. And this isn’t anticipated to be a short-term shortfall both as DSCC says to count on a small annual 5% rise in foldable show shipments this yr to be adopted up by a 4% decline for all of 2025. That is after the supply of foldable shows grew by 40% per yr from 2019-2023.
A few of the declines in shipments of foldable shows are happening in opposition to the backdrop of some producers pulling out of the foldable market. As we instructed you final month, moreover little identified finances names like Infinix, Itel, and Tecno waving the white flag, a much bigger identify out of China is anticipated to drag out as nicely. Both vivo or Oppo, each owned by China’s BBK Electronics (together with OnePlus, Realme, and iQOO), might be saying goodbye to foldables.
Samsung led the way in which in foldable panel procurement for the third quarter of 2024. | Picture credit-DSCC
Proper now, Samsung and Huawei are the 2 leaders within the international foldables market. DSCC says that show shipments for the Galaxy Z Flip 6 clamshell foldable this yr will likely be 10% beneath the quantity shipped for the Galaxy Z Flip 5 final yr. Whereas demand for the machine has been robust in Europe and Korea, it hasn’t caught on within the U.S. and China. And that is huge information for the reason that Galaxy Z Flip 6 would be the top-selling foldable in 2024. The Galaxy Z Flip 5 (2023) and Galaxy Z Flip 4 (2022) additionally obtained that honor.
Despite the fact that panel shipments for the Galaxy Z Fold 6 will outnumber deliveries for the Galaxy Z Fold 5, Sammy’s general foldable panel shipments for 2024 will likely be down 20% to the bottom degree since 2021. Issues would have been worse had Samsung not accepted panels this quarter for a mannequin not coming till 2025. Samsung nonetheless leads the way in which in foldable panel procurement because the producer receives 40 out of each 100 foldable panels shipped, down from 52% final yr. DSCC sees Samsung’s procurement market share rising again over 50% in 2025 on over 20% progress. The numbers will nonetheless be beneath the 2022 and 2023 figures.
Huawei’s foldable panel procurement has additionally declined from 30% of the market in Q2 to twenty% in Q3. Even with lower than anticipated panel shipments for the tri-fold Mate XT, Huawei will submit an enchancment of greater than 90% within the procurement of foldable shows with its share rising from 18% in 2023 to 33% in 2024.
Based mostly on panel procurement figures, the highest 10 foldable smartphones in the course of the third quarter included:
- Three foldable telephones from Samsung together with the Z Flip 6 main with a 31% share, and two different fashions.
- Huawei and Motorola every with a pair of foldable telephones on this record.
- One mannequin every from Google, Honor, and Xiaomi.
Is there something on the horizon that may flip round this all of a sudden moribund foldable market? Right here comes Apple to avoid wasting the day. With its first foldable anticipated to hit the market in the course of the second half of 2026, DSCC expects that yr to ship record-setting progress for foldables with 30% progress adopted by 20% progress in 2027 and 2028.
DSCC forecasts that one different model will ship a tri-fold in 2026. Nevertheless, DSCC additionally sees the variety of gamers within the foldable market persevering with to say no. In 2024, 41 completely different foldable fashions shipped and DSCC sees that quantity declining to 32 subsequent yr.