From Tariff Revisions to Subscriber Dips: A Chronological Overview

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) launched the Telecom Subscription Information as of August 31, 2024, on Friday. This marks the second consecutive launch of subscriber information following the tariff revision introduced in July, efficient July 3, 2024. In line with the TRAI information for July and August 2024, the outcomes are clear: apart from BSNL, each telecom operator, together with non-public gamers and the most important telco identified for including wi-fi subscribers, has skilled a decline in wi-fi subscribers. This pattern has been attributed to the tariff revisions, main customers to gravitate towards BSNL, which has not carried out any tariff hikes.

Additionally Learn: BSNL Not Contemplating Tariff Hike Anytime Quickly, CMD Says: Report

BSNL’s Place within the Market

In actual fact, BSNL has been aggressively advertising its No Tariff Hike Plans on social media and selling its 4G Community bulletins. In line with a latest report, the BSNL CMD talked about on the launch of the brand new branding that the corporate is just not searching for any tariff will increase and is targeted on buyer satisfaction. Total, BSNL’s subscriber progress is being attributed to its No Tariff Hike coverage and the optimistic sentiment surrounding its PAN India 4G Community launch. This sentiment has been echoed throughout the trade.

Timeline of Tariff Bulletins

With that in thoughts, let’s look at how this case has unfolded, together with the timeline, subscriber numbers, and key factors that may assist us perceive one thing.

June 27: Surprisingly, Reliance Jio was the primary to announce a tariff revision in 2024. Whereas no particular causes had been supplied, the brand new charges had been set to take impact on July 3. Subscribers would additionally take pleasure in limitless 5G on pay as you go plans of 2GB per day and above.

June 28: Airtel adopted swimsuit with its tariff revision, emphasising that the cellular Common Income per Consumer (ARPU) must exceed Rs 300 to make sure a financially wholesome enterprise mannequin for telecom corporations in India. As of This autumn FY24, Bharti Airtel holds the best cellular ARPU within the nation at Rs 209.

With these tariff will increase, Airtel believes that reaching this ARPU degree will facilitate substantial investments in community expertise and spectrum whereas additionally offering a modest return on capital. Subscribers would additionally take pleasure in limitless 5G on pay as you go plans of 2GB per day and above.

June 28: Submit-market hours on Friday, Vodafone Thought (Vi) quietly uploaded a press launch confirming its tariff revision to the change, formally confirming the tariff revision.

July 3: The revised tariff hikes for all three non-public telcos—Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Thought, and Reliance Jio—got here into impact.

Whereas India witnessed these tariff revisions with non-public operators, BSNL didn’t announce any hikes. Frankly, BSNL has nothing to compete with by way of revising tariffs, missing a PAN India 4G, VoLTE, or 5G community. Thus, it doesn’t make sense for BSNL to comply with the non-public operators and lift its tariffs.

To date, BSNL has been actively saying Cell Quantity Portability (MNP) and new subscriber additions via its social media channels. Plainly customers are porting to BSNL in giant numbers as a consequence of its aggressive tariffs and the anticipation of upcoming 4G companies.

Learn Extra – Bharti Airtel Declares Revised Cell Tariffs: Test Full Particulars

September 20: TRAI launched Telecom Subscription Information as of July 31, 2024. In line with this information, BSNL was the one telco so as to add 2.93 million (2,931,971) wi-fi subscribers, whereas Airtel misplaced 1.69 million (-1,694,300), Vodafone Thought misplaced 1.41 million (-1,413,910), and Jio misplaced round 0.76 million (-758,463) wi-fi subscribers. This marked the primary occasion of wi-fi information from the regulator following the tariff revisions, revealing a mixed subscriber lack of roughly 3.86 million for Airtel, Vodafone Thought, and Jio.

October 26: On Friday, TRAI launched the Telecom Subscription Information as of August 31, 2024. The information once more confirmed that BSNL was the one telco to achieve subscribers, including 2.53 million (2,532,854) wi-fi subscribers. In distinction, Airtel misplaced 2.41 million (-2,409,102), Vodafone Thought misplaced 1.87 million (-1,874,376), and Jio misplaced 4.02 million (-4,018,879) wi-fi subscribers. This marked the second consecutive month of declining wi-fi subscribers for all non-public telcos following the tariff revisions, with a complete mixed lack of round 8.3 million subscribers.

June 2024 Subscriber Metrics

To know the subscriber metrics from the earlier month, simply earlier than the tariff revision, we are able to have a look at the TRAI Information as of June 30, 2024. In June 2024, BSNL and Vodafone Thought had been the one telcos that misplaced wi-fi subscribers. We are able to put aside Vi, because it has been on a steady subscriber loss streak. Airtel gained 1.25 million wi-fi subscribers, Vodafone Thought misplaced 0.86 million wi-fi subscribers, BSNL misplaced 0.75 million, and Jio gained 1.91 million wi-fi subscribers. This sample has continued for a while.

Quick ahead to the present situation, and every little thing has modified: BSNL is the one telco gaining subscribers, credited to the tariff revisions.

Time Length

Inspecting the timeline, the revised tariffs from non-public telcos had been introduced on the finish of June (on the twenty seventh), with an efficient date of July 3. TRAI’s subscriber information for July is as of the thirty first of that month, permitting for a 28-day buffer interval.

Cell Quantity Portability (MNP)

Let’s additionally evaluation the MNP request information reported by TRAI. In Might 2024, 12 million subscribers submitted requests for MNP. This quantity barely decreased to 11.84 million in June, whereas July noticed a rise to 13.68 million and August noticed 14.66 million MNP requests.

TRAI’s report solely mentions the MNP requests with out additional readability. It doesn’t specify whether or not these are simply SMS requests acquired, what number of had been processed, and what number of had been denied or failed. Thus, we assume this information is inadequate to verify if these are literally processed requests or merely requests acquired from prospects. Even when we contemplate all of those requests as processed, they don’t correspond intently to the subscriber additions. Nonetheless, the MNP request numbers do present a modest enhance in July and August in comparison with Might and June.

Quantity Lively Standing

Telecom corporations usually comply with a selected timeline to discard unused or non-recharged numbers, particularly after the necessary service validity required even to obtain incoming calls. In some instances, even that coverage is just not adhered to, and numbers stay energetic for incoming calls with none energetic recharges. Primarily based on private expertise, a quantity in a non-recharge state can stay energetic for prolonged durations with out being deactivated inside only one month.

Assumptions

Contemplating the 28 days left in July following the tariff revision’s efficient date, it’s tough to imagine that 3.86 million numbers had been diminished instantly in July, adopted by 8.3 million wi-fi subscribers in August from non-public telcos. Even when hundreds of thousands of consumers stopped recharging after the tariff revision information, the chance of their numbers being discarded instantly is sort of zero.

The reported wi-fi subscriber numbers counsel that customers haven’t recharged their accounts for a very long time and are ready for the tariff revisions to be discarded from the system. Even when we assume that a few of these instances are correct, earlier months’ additions inform a special story. Furthermore, even contemplating the opportunity of MNP, the numbers don’t align. Subsequently, we’re left with speculative assumptions in regards to the accuracy of the reported numbers.