Like a soft-hearted boxer making an attempt to offer the group worth for cash, Apple has accomplished its greatest for years to maintain Google standing within the smartphone ring. If it actually exerted itself, we all the time felt, the Cupertino Crusher might put the Mountain View Mangler on the canvas in brief order. However the firm might by no means fairly carry itself to use the coup de grâce.

The rationale, after all, has nothing to do with charity—Apple merely doesn’t need to launch an iPhone that’s higher or costlier to fabricate than it must be. It has quite a few benefits over the assorted Android {hardware} distributors: it has extra money to spend on R&D, it may well management and optimise {hardware} and software program collectively, it has higher buyer belief and model recognition, and its enterprise mannequin isn’t based mostly on promoting and information seize. However whereas an “insanely nice” iPhone would possibly kill Android as a sensible various, it will reduce into revenue margins and go away Apple with nowhere to go the next 12 months. A greater long-term technique is to launch telephones simply sufficient higher than the earlier era to shift some models… and Google is welcome to stay round within the meantime.

Nonetheless, you’ll be able to’t sustain this form of factor indefinitely. Actually, it seems like 2025 would be the 12 months when the iPhone lastly establishes a transparent and indeniable lead over its rival. I’m not saying Android goes the best way of BlackBerry and Home windows Cellphone fairly but, however I believe that by this time subsequent 12 months the writing will likely be on the wall and the graphs will all be moving into a route that makes Tim Cook dinner completely satisfied.

IDG

IDG

IDG

On the price range finish of the market, large adjustments are coming to the iPhone SE, a product that’s endured a troublesome couple of years however, as I wrote again in April, seems set for a comeback within the subsequent iteration. The Third-gen mannequin failed to supply any worthwhile enhancements on the favored 2nd-gen SE, however studies recommend that Apple has discovered its lesson: it’s lastly going to maneuver on from that antiquated chassis and provides the subsequent SE a 6.1-inch OLED display, Face ID, an A16 processor, and excellent cameras. (Extremely, it seems like will probably be based mostly on the design of this 12 months’s iPhone 16.) The value will certainly be increased, however not by an enormous quantity, and $499 for that spec listing goes to be troublesome to withstand.

If Apple lastly takes that part of the market critically, it can characterize a significant blow to Android’s prospects and telephones just like the Pixel 9a and Samsung Galaxy S24 FE. However extra dangerous information is coming on the premium finish within the type of the iPhone 17. If clients apparently go nuts for cautious iterative updates just like the iPhone 15 and 16, what is going to they make of the redesigned iPhone Air?

Believable rumors level to a shake-up in 2025, with Apple ditching the 17 Plus and changing it with a 17 Air (or Slim, or another branding). This handset will likely be considerably thinner and lighter than the opposite fashions and will contain some compromises to accommodate this. In different phrases, it’s an iPhone X-like danger, however as my colleague Jason argues, it’s the type that Apple must take. By changing the reportedly weakest-selling mannequin within the line with one thing daring, new, and classy, the corporate will create buzz and attraction to clients who’re bored with the identical outdated iPhone look—in addition to entice some switchers alongside the best way.

Foundry

Foundry

Foundry

Except for the aesthetic and comfort implications of a slimmer design, the 17-series iPhones also needs to carry two sensible and presently Professional-exclusive display options–ProMotion, and the always-on show–and provide them throughout the vary. It will materially enhance the attraction of Apple’s base fashions and certain tempt much more Android customers to make the leap. Apple loves an upsell, which is why it holds again options like this for years for the costlier telephones. However they drop all the way down to the usual fashions in the long run, and that’s when their actual affect on gross sales is felt.

In different phrases, all of it seems promising for the iPhone in 2025, and ominous for the Android ecosystem. Apple followers are even seeing enhancements within the areas the place the corporate has traditionally been weak. It was late to get on the AI bandwagon, however Apple Intelligence is rolling out this 12 months and is more likely to discover its ft in 2025. iOS is painted as overly restrictive on the subject of consumer customization, however iOS 18 is much extra versatile than any of Apple’s earlier software program updates—we are able to even tint icons and put them the place we wish! Even latest defeats for Apple, adjustments imposed by political our bodies comparable to permitting third-party app shops and (with the utmost reluctance) catering to consumer repairs, add to the general attraction of its product ecosystem. A much less inflexible walled backyard could also be much less worthwhile for Apple however it’s precisely the type of factor that can entice curious Android customers.

Is there something left that Android does higher than the iPhone? Actually, not a lot. I suppose you’d have to incorporate foldables in that class, though I’m wondering how many individuals really care. And the second folding smartphones turn into a worthwhile market, you’d think about Apple would swoop in with a folding iPhone that’s higher than something provided by the competitors.

So no, I don’t assume there’s any getting back from this. Android’s had an honest run, and did properly to remain on its ft this lengthy. However let’s be sincere: It’s time to chuck within the towel earlier than this combat will get ugly. RIP.